Qiaqia Foods (002557): Increasing income growth caused by contingent factors has led to significant net profit growth

Qiaqia Foods (002557): Increasing income growth caused by 南京桑拿网 contingent factors has led to significant net profit growth

Performance summary: The company achieved operating income in the first quarter of 201910.

4 trillion, +1 a year.

3%; net profit attributable to mother 1.

14 trillion, +35 a year.

8%, deducting non-attribution net profit 86.25 million yuan, +38 a year.

5%.

Incidental factors led to Q1 revenue growth.

1. The company ‘s Q1 growth rate is the largest and is actually ahead of two: 1) the impact of the Spring Festival peak shift factors, the early Spring Festival in 19, some of the Spring Festival stocking response in 18Q4; 2) the company sold Jiangsu Chakang and Baotou HuakuiSubsidiaries, resulting in a decrease in revenue of more than 40 million in 19Q1, affecting a growth rate of about 4%.

If 18Q4 + 19Q1 are combined and the influence of subsidiaries 杭州桑拿网 is eliminated, the growth rate is expected to be around 12%.

2. The core products still maintained good growth: 1) The overall number of sunflower seeds has increased, and Blue Bag is expected to realize sales revenue1.

About 800 million (including tax), + 20% per year, the income of traditional sunflower seeds is basically flat.

2) Estimated daily sales revenue of nuts1.

About 800 million (including tax), + 38% per year. In 19, the company increased the number of key cities in the small yellow bag to 50, further increasing the market rate.

3) New products such as yam crisps still maintained good growth. Due to SKU adjustments in other traditional categories, sales revenue shifted to a certain extent.

Rising gross profit margin improved and net profit increased significantly.

1. The company’s Q1 gross profit margin is 30.

38%, an increase of 1 per year.

45pp, the traditional red bag price increase is expected to increase the gross profit margin by 2-3 percentage points. The gross profit margin of the small yellow bag is currently less than 30%, which will increase the overall gross profit margin and lower the overall gross profit.There is room for improvement in gross profit estimates.

2. The three rate (including R & D) is 18.

5%, basically basically the same, of which the sales expense ratio, management expense ratio (including research and development), and financial expense ratio were 13.

8%, 5.

2%, -0.

6%, +0 per year.

21pp, +0.

58pp, -0.

89% increase in management expenses. As a result of accruing equity incentive expenses, interest income from loan operations reduces financial expenses.

3. Due to deferred effects, Q1 can increase by 18.

7%, which is 6pp lower than the same period last year, and the company ‘s Q1 net profit margin increased by 2.

7pp to 11.

1%, net profit increased significantly.

Sunflower seeds + nuts dual category strategy is clear, the company is expected to start a new round of growth.

The company ‘s clear two-category development strategy for seeds and nuts, seeds resume growth under taste innovation and quality optimization, new blue bags continue to grow, and daily nuts have now grown into super-large single products, and it is expected to contribute 900 millionTax revenue continued to grow rapidly, and the volume of the second category exceeded the growth period.

2. After adjustment and gradual improvement, the company now has a clear category planning and development strategy. Equity incentives effectively stimulate employees’ enthusiasm, and the company is expected to start a new round of growth.

Earnings forecasts and investment advice.

It is expected that the compound growth rate of revenue for 2019-2021 will be 14.

At 7%, the compounded growth rate of net profit attributable to mothers was 21.

7%, EPS is 1.

08 yuan, 1.29 yuan, 1.

54 yuan, corresponding PE is 22X, 19X, 16X, maintaining the “buy” level.

Risk Warning: The price of raw materials may fluctuate significantly, and the sales of small yellow bags may be lower than expected.